Bitcoin Death Cross - Ruh Roh?
Dubai Cancels Privacy Coins & TardFi Investors Bullish BTC over ETH So Far in 2023
Theo Delarosa
February 08, 2023
đ Daily Bullets - Wednesday, February 8th
Todayâs newsletter is 1345 words. A cool 5 minute read.
Crypto is in the red today - the market is having difficulty sustaining its previous bullish momentum and now some traders are pointing out an imminent âdeath crossâ on the Bitcoin weekly chart. Despite that, the announcements never stop. What could Sandbox and Saudi Arabia have planned? Weâve got a new Layer-1 Chiliz Blockchain and donât forget Blur marketplaceâs anticipated token launch coming next week. Never a dull moment in crypto.
Today weâre looking at:
- â ď¸ Bitcoin Death Cross - Ruh Roh?
- đ¤ Dubai Cancels Privacy Coins
- đ¸ TardFi Investors Bullish BTC over ETH So Far in 2023
đ§ Listen: The Crypto Illuminati Twitter Spaces
â ď¸ Bitcoin Death Cross - Ruh Roh?
Technical analysis should always be taken with a grain of salt! TA is a tool, and like any tool it should be used cautiously. There is a time and a place for it. There is simply no such thing as magic lines that you can draw on a chart that will tell the future. However there is power in psychology and especially in self fulfilling prophecies when so many people share a similar view.
Key Details: What is a Death Cross?
- Bitcoin is close to recording its first ever "death cross" on the weekly price chart
- A death cross occurs when the 50-week moving average crosses below the 200-week moving average,
- Signals a trend change from bullish to bearish
- Bitcoin narrowly avoided a death cross in November 2015 and switched from bull market to bear market in late 2021/early 2022
- The death cross is just 0.5% of bitcoin's price away and is likely to occur in the next few days!
Some Bullish Hopium: Bitcoin also did see a bullish golden cross on its daily moving averages earlier this week. Although higher time frames do take priorityâŚ
Final Thoughts: A death cross and a golden cross at the end of the day do not mean anything and are not predictive. However the names can be so bombastic and many traders do pay attention to them so there is an aspect of a self fulfilling prophecy. If traders and investors get it in their minds that we are entering a âtechnicalâ bearish phase, will they position as such? Those lines on your chart wonât save you, weâre all just along for the ride.
Go Deeper here
đ¤ Dubai Cancels Privacy Coins
Dubai prohibits privacy coins such as Zcash and Monero under new digital asset regulations. Anonymity-enhancing crypto is defined as a type of virtual asset that prevents tracing of transactions or record of ownership and has no means to allow traceability. Governments are ready to fight.
Key details:
- Jurisdictions like Japan have taken steps to ban privacy-enhancing crypto
- EU also considering a ban on tokens that hinder traceability
- Dubai's crypto activities supervised by Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA) established last year.
- Dubai is working to attract crypto and blockchain companies
Significance: Itâs looking grim for privacy protecting technology. While the average user values their privacy, governments feel differently because any obfuscation of fund flows poses a challenge to detecting illicit activities.
You could potentially do something illegal if youâre allowed to move money without anyone knowing so naturally they donât want you to be able to do it. Itâs unfortunate that this is the state of privacy.
Are privacy coins dead? - with the inevitable rise of regulation, KYC and anti-money laundering requirements that we are bound to see in the years to come, itâs difficult to see the privacy sector having longevity. There will need to be solutions that allow privacy but satisfy the governmentâs itch to know what youâre doing with your money.
Go Deeper here
đ¸ TardFi Investors Bullish BTC over ETH so Far in 2023
The Game has changed! During the last half of 2022, ETH ruled and Bitcoin drooled. Now, according to digital asset analysis firm Arcane Research, institutional traders are prioritizing Bitcoin over ETH exposure with BTC having led the early 2023 market strength.
Key Points:
- Bitcoin futures open interest on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has increased by 6% in 2023, while ETH futures declined by 29%
- The ETH futures annualized rolling three-month basis has grown in the last few weeks and now sits at similar levels to that of BTC
- Smaller altcoins have rallied in January, while ETH hasn't jumped as much as BTC
What is causing this preference? Institutional investorsâ preference for BTC may be linked to reasons such as uncertainty about Ethereumâs upcoming Shanghai hard fork which will allow validators to withdraw 16M staked ETH and could add selling pressure
Is this warranted? Hereâs a good thread on how much could be sold
As far as technicals go, The Shanghai testnets have been successful and without major incident so far, so investors should calm their worries about something technically going wrong with the update. Itâll most likely pass by similarly to the Merge. Highly anticipated but without too much noise or issues. We could even see a âsell the newsâ event⌠Whether or not the ETH that will be suddenly unlocked will be dumped on the market is another question however.
Go Deeper here
â Daily Bullets
- Microsoft integrates ChatGPT into Bing search engine
- Saudi Arabia and The Sandbox agree to collaborate on metaverse projects without revealing details
- Blur anticipated token launch next week
- Aptos Labs backs web3 TikTok rival Chingari
- Chiliz marks fifth anniversary by announcing validation of genesis block of the new Layer-1 Chiliz Blockchain
- Algorand Foundation announces broad-reaching partnerships in India to grow Web3
- BAYC cracks down on Dookey Dash cheaters as finale approaches
- Bitcoin average block size reached a new all-time high of 2.25 megabytes
- Revolut launches crypto staking for Ethereum, Cardano, Polkadot, and Tezos
- Render Network vote passed a new tokenomics model
- Announcing Stylus, next-gen programming environment upgrade for Arbitrum One and Arbitrum Nova
- Blockchain carbon credit transaction network Carbonplace secured $45M in an investment round from its nine founder banks with a combined $9T in assets under management
- OpenSea is now an aggregator to the Seaport ecosystem
- CryptoPunk and Bored Ape sell for over $1M each
đ Market Dashboard
- đ Top 500 Gainers:
- CRTS - Vote To Earn
- TRAC - Decentralized Knowledge Graph
- QLC - Network-as-a-Service
- đ Top 500 Losers:
- GFT - Gifting Platform
- ZEON - Decentralized Financial Services
- VXV - AI & Data
Chart of the Day - Crypto Exchange Volume
- So weâve got a big scary sounding âdeath crossâ on the way. Sounds bad! We want to see some bullish counterexamples. Is crypto exchange volume seeing a boost to indicate an inflow of retail traders and investors? Unfortunately notâŚ
- Volumes throughout the crypto space have been relatively subdued despite the rallies and pumps within sectors. Indicates that the pump is just crypto natives and degens sloshing their money around.
đResearch/Reads
- Upcoming crazy altcoin |Arthur Hayes | Be Present - source
- Ethereumâs next hardfork anticipated in March | Shanghai: Effects on Liquid Staking Derivatives - source
- Recent developments, analyzes trends, and investment thesis | Top 10 Trends in 2023: An Overview by Hashed - source
- A Systematization of Knowledge on MEV in the Modular World | Modular MEV; Part 1âThe Introduction - source
- The current state of dApp governance is highly investor-centric, giving users little representation | Messari | Governor Note: Usage-Based Governance with Sybil Resistance - source
- Potential risks to investors and the integrity of the U.S. capital markets | SEC Division of Examinations Announces 2023 Priorities - source
đ Bonus - Fat Apps Thesis Invalidated in 5 Years?
Jason Choi breaks down his thoughts on why one of the most successful investment theses of all time will be invalidated within the next 5 yrs due to market maturity, technical and empirical reasons. Check out what he says and let us know, do you agree?
đ Fat Apps Thesis
Why the most popular thesis in crypto will soon be invalidated
— Jason Choi (@mrjasonchoi)
Feb 7, 2023
We hope you find this issue engaging and enlightening. As always, we welcome your feedback and suggestions for future issues.
đĽ Follow: Twitter - LinkedIn | đ§ Listen: The Crypto Illuminati Twitter Spaces